Michael Covel: Trend Following Manifesto - Latest Comments

Re: A Pep Talk From Kid President

Jon — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 02:46:20 -0000

Such a simple, yet motivating approach during a time where we seem to want to complicate everything we do. This video reminded me of a post from the Capitalogix blog last week: http://www.youtube.com/watc...

Re: Why Is the EMF Theory So Widely Advocated?

Lucky — Sun, 20 Jan 2013 13:03:59 -0000

EMH is funny. If one person is selling and the other is buying, at exactly the same time and exactly the same price, surely one of them is making mistake.
Also, if people were rational, nobody would play a lottery.

Re: Kim Kardashian Is Having A Baby!

Howard Young — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 14:20:14 -0000

Thanks for sharing Barry's post. BTW, who is Kim Kardashian?

Re: Coming to Asia Soon: Covel!

jaytrader — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 20:21:07 -0000

Mike,

That guy's background is so similar to mine (from broker/trader to same
"top two" books to taking a Van Tharp course!) that I thought it
might be good to connect with him. I'm still working in a brokerage position
and assisting clients with some of the trading systems I've developed, but I am
working toward the same goal as your Aussie fan: trading independently. Would
it be inappropriate to ask you to send him my email and contact info?

-JP

Re: Dave Ramsey, Rick Edelman & the Anal Probing of Investors

Michael Covel — Sat, 12 Jan 2013 12:45:32 -0000

You might as well call it quits now Calvin. An attitude like that and It's over, bro. Doesn't make a difference whether you are a Walmart greeter or the next great trend follower, your attitude/understanding toward success/opportunity is a dead end to nothingness. Buy and hold was invented for people with your attitude. It's all good. Best wishes.

Re: Dave Ramsey, Rick Edelman & the Anal Probing of Investors

calvin harris — Sat, 12 Jan 2013 07:13:22 -0000

It's the 80 20 principal, or something near it.

In other words, we market timers have to admit that it is only a fraction of us who make the big money and a lot of people tread water or lose. With buy and hold, it's the vast, vast majority who have a mediocre return. And once in a while, like the article, they lose a lot.

So what should a guy like ramsey preach to the masses. It's obvious to me. Why isn't it to you?

Why can't YOU admit that market timing is great for those who do it great, and disaster for those who don't?

Do you think everyone should be a trader and make a greater than avg return?
Please think through the math before you answer that.

I don't come at this as a buy and holder. I'm a trader.
The TRUTH is ......only a small part of traders make money.
Isn't that the truth?

Can ALL traders make money?
You must know that's a clown question i just asked, bro.

Re: Chris Kacher and Gil Morales Interview; Trend Following with Michael Covel

Clint Stevens — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 16:53:32 -0000

http://www.amazon.com/The-S...

Re: Trend Following Is Objective, But Many Forms of Technical Analysis Are Subjective

jeremy — Sun, 06 Jan 2013 17:17:38 -0000

careful here. couldn't one say the same about "trends"...depending on the time scale you use, there can be as many trends as you care to imagine.

Re: Love What You Do!

Fred J Penney — Sun, 30 Dec 2012 11:23:22 -0000

Perfect!

Re: Trend Following Is Objective, But Many Forms of Technical Analysis Are Subjective

Greg M — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 22:49:06 -0000

Elliott Wave, Gann & Fibonacci all fall under the category Pareidolia. They make nice looking charts with the 20/20 of hindsight but can they make you money? I think not. Keep it simple, follow the trend.

Re: Trend Following Is Objective, But Many Forms of Technical Analysis Are Subjective

Li Yigui — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 21:59:13 -0000

Agree.

Re: “The Market is Always Right.”

jim rohrbach — Wed, 26 Dec 2012 18:21:19 -0000

Michael: T'hanks for putting this on you blog. It is so simple and yet so misunderstood.
Jim

Re: Learn To Swim Upstream with Trend Following

Roberto da Silva — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 06:11:11 -0000

When will we see a review of

Re: Does the Evidence Support This Anti-Trend Following View?

Trend Trader Jim — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 05:53:04 -0000

You can say "Black Swan"... you have seen one, Michael has not. Show him the swan and I'm sure he will be happy to consider your assertion that he is wrong.

Re: Never Forget the Basics

Trend Trader Jim — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 05:33:00 -0000

As long as you remain true to your trend following plan you already reside in a place most would refer to as "genius"... only you and the rest of us "geniuses" know how simple it really can be if we stay with the flow.

Re: Never Forget the Basics

Andrew Derbyshire — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 18:28:33 -0000

Think I may write this out..that's just pure wisdom..Love to see a comment that would argue with the above..think that will be a reminder to me if I slip back into the old way of trading..or try to be a genius

Re: Ali Velshi of CNN: Biased, Disingenuous and Manipulative

gigi byte — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 01:42:57 -0000

Velshi is an ignorant journalist. Has no idea about finance/economy. Frankly he has gotten many things wrong. He still spouts that the US cannot make electronics/high tech even as US companies are actually moving back to the US. Such an idiot.

Re: David Harding Speaks to Trend Following

Shawn — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 14:32:27 -0000

Hi Mike My partner and I have been putting together our trading system and are set on building balance to limit drawdowns. Would you or any of your followers know where I can Find a list of non correlated cross currency's that have been proven over time. We have not been able to come up with a concrete list That proves non correlated wins out correlated over a 15 year back test. Any ideas point me in the right direction. Keep up the good Work! Shawn!

Re: Think About It

lucky — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 17:47:34 -0000

Every couple of years (once a decade?) trend following has to do poorly simply to make sure enough money flows out of it, so trend followers can start making money again. It is a zero sum game after all.

Re: Think About It

Establishment Trader — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 12:35:36 -0000

Great post. If you look at the hedge funds who have long track records like Soros, Tudor, Moore, Caxton, and the CTA/systematic types like Winton, Chesapeake, and so forth, most of them are having some of their worst years. A bunch of these are down anywhere from 0.5 to 15% because vol is low, macro stories get crushed by central banks, and ZIRP prevents traders from collecting carry in any decent clip. HOWEVER, when all these option selling, vol arb, "range playing" models have their worst years, you can't do research on them BECAUSE THEY CEASE TO EXIST. The difference here is huge and not even having caps lock on can express it. When this corrects we will be able to divide investors into two groups, one that still has their principal and the other who is in a class action lawsuit because the founders of the fund never pulled the cord on a strategy with a long run negative expected value.

Re: 25 Trend Trading Commandments from Michael Covel

sudhir — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 12:10:44 -0000

Great , If one does not want to loose 5 to 10 good years in trading and huge lose before
understanding the market, follow the 25 commandment by Micheal Covel.
sudhir

Re: Understand Trend Following

lucky — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 17:57:16 -0000

Haldane used Robert Shiller’s data for analysis.

http://marketsci.wordpress....

Quote:

"That’s a problem because when Shiller shows a monthly price for the S&P 500, that price is the average for the month and NOT the month-end (or month-beginning or anything else). In other words, that price isn’t actually knowable until the end of the month (and by then, it’s no longer obtainable)."

Haldane simulated going back in time, not trend following.

Re: Understand Trend Following

Gav Gray — Mon, 26 Nov 2012 22:36:29 -0000

Nate Silver argues the opposite of this in his book, "The Noise and The Signal". He sides with Shiller's model, and gives a very poor example of why momentum trading (eg. trend following) doesn't work. The chapter is a sour note in what is otherwise a pretty interesting book.

Re: “Dad, How Does the Stock Market Work?”

Dave Bickings — Sat, 24 Nov 2012 15:00:16 -0000

"It is important to follow what the market is currently doing as opposed to following what one might personally think the market should do....Every man has a right to his opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts."...........Bernard Baruch, Wall Street Legend

Re: You Are Not the Bell Curve

Chris Grande — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 08:47:17 -0000

great point - how we think is critical